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The world of luxury has seen its sales total $ 11.959 million euros over nine months, little changed as reported and down 6% excluding currency fluctuations, in line with the consensus reached by the editor of Reuters (11.921 million euros).

In the third quarter alone, they reached 4.135 million (4130 million Reuters consensus) but have limited their decline to 3% on an organic basis, following declines of 7% in the first and second quarters, and while analysts were anticipating a decline 6%.

LVMH said this development through continued stocking distributors and believes that the third quarter marks a “trend of improvement relative to the start of the year.

The group, which does not provide forecasts for the whole financial year, says that in a “still marked by the crisis in many parts of the world”, it will continue its strategy to “further strengthen its lead in the market World of Luxury. “

After a decline in global sales of luxury that could reach about 10% in 2009, year of fracture compared to a historical average growth of 7% to 8% annually, the consulting firm Bain & Co. “The market will be stable at best or, at worst, down 5%,” he told Reuters Joëlle de Montgolfier, head of studies and distribution within the luxury consulting firm.
“The three areas most affected by the crisis (Europe, USA and Japan) account for 80% of global market and the prospects for recovery are not flamboyant,” she said.

For Isabelle Ardon, manager at Societe Generale Asset Management, “expectations are hard to do for 2010 given the unknown stocks. We may be a surprise if destocking is purged.

A return to a situation “normalized”, that is to say close to the average growth rates in the industry, should not intervene, she said before 2011-2012.

But with the prospect of a takeover, even shy, bases favorable comparison in the second half of 2009 and significant adaptation to the crisis (cost control, change in supply) sector values have greatly outperformed the index DJStoxx 50, advancing 15% since the beginning of the year.

PROPERTY SECTOR VALORISÉ :

“The industry is valued today and offers little potential in the short term,” he told Reuters analyst who requested anonymity, adding that the luxury groups “must demonstrate a capacity for rapid recovery in terms sales in order to consolidate their market growth.

Some, such as PPR owns Gucci (80% stock market since January), or Richemont, owner of houses Cartier or Van Cleef & Arpels, (44%), showing even double-digit growth compared to their levels before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Despite their rebounding, the luxury groups have returned to their historical levels. The sector is now valued on average at 17.5 times earnings in 2010 – excluding Hermes (more than 33 times), and Bulgari (more than 39 times), two values supported by takeover speculation – while the average History is around 20.

n the short term, the sector is exposed to the risk that poses the epidemic of influenza A on travel. If the impact is difficult to assess, analysts believe however that the effect of influenza H1N1 should not be sustainable.

“The impact is unpredictable, but its consequences are likely to be short and will not affect medium-term consumer behavior,” said one analyst who requested anonymity.

PREMIUM FASHION-LEATHER :

In the medium term, the actors of luxury should not all enjoy the same as the expected recovery of global growth.

Thus, watches and jewelry, which has particularly suffered from destocking because its products are mainly sold through third-party networks, is expected to recover more slowly than the leather goods or accessories. For the entry price of watches and jewelry are significantly higher than in the mode or leather.

Also, for groups such as Italian Bulgari, Swiss Richemont or American Tiffany, out of a crisis should it be slower, according to analysts, as Gucci, LVMH and Hermes, more diversified and less dependent on distributors.

Richemont, the world of luxury, which saw its sales plunge 21% over five months and whose stock has doubled in six months, does little upside potential in the short term. “The visibility on turnover is limited, even if the fundamental group are good in the long term,” said Rogerio Fujimori, an analyst at Credit Suisse.

Despite its stock rebound, analysts said that some titles still have a significant upside potential, especially LVMH. The world of luxury has underperformed its peer (value still shows a decrease of 1.8% compared to its levels before Lehman) due to the cons-performance of its wines and spirits division and because group is most at risk, through its subsidiary, DFS duty free, the risk of epidemic influenza.

But, according to analysts, its high exposure to the Chinese market (its flagship brand Louis Vuitton generates some 19% of its turnover) should make him a powerful lever. “The market underestimates the potential long-term Vuitton”, covered by analysts at Exane BNP Paribas in a note, saying that LV has taken the lead in terms of vertical integration, innovation and implementation Geographic.

RETURN OF SPECULATIONS :

Finally, the return of mergers and acquisitions could prompt speculation about possible alliances. “Predators are on the lookout, but targets are scarce and the potential sellers have not adjusted their prices, analysts said HSBC, who say they do not anticipate major building operations.

Among major groups, the home foreclosure capital of Hermes, Chanel and Bulgari, the most coveted, leaves little room for the appetite of buyers.

As for PPR, the prospects for recovery in consumption could reopen its doors to an assignment of a distribution center now largely restored. Among the small caps, only English Burberry seems to unite, according to HSBC, qualifications: 100% of floating capital and an important development potential for a brand very “British” with a strong identity.