The Swiss Richemont, the world of luxury, which owns Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Montblanc and Swatch, the watchmaker holding marks Blancpain and Longines, as Britain’s Burberry, all have taken the markets by surprise this week by announcing sales significantly exceeded expectations for the last three months of the year.

“Obviously, logic dictates that the estimates for the numbers coming are revised upwards,” said one analyst who wished to remain anonymous, and that “the level of expectation rises mechanically. “There will certainly be adjustments,” said another analyst.

Also, LVMH, the world industry, and Hermes will they more difficult to detect when they are published on 4 and 5 February.

Owner of Gucci, PPR, which will sell its flagship consumer distribution in favor of a focus on fashion brands in the luxury as the general public, publish it on its results February 18. Favorable comparisons with the 4th quarter 2009, sales of Christmas seem to have held too low and estimates of analysts can explain the discrepancy between market expectations and the figures published this week.

Restocking :
After their collapse a year ago thanks to the powerful engine of China, the sales season, crucial for the sector were “apparently rather held without being extravagant,” said an analyst.

They have also benefited, for the players’ hard luxury “that are jewelers and watchmakers – the most affected by the wholesalers destocking, restocking of phenomena induced by extreme caution in purchases.

“Christmas was quite correct in Europe and the United States and the emerging dynamics remains very strong,” noted another analysis bureau.

He adds, explaining the gap between expectations and actual published figures, that analysts ‘sell side’ had “perhaps been too conservative and too slow to revise their estimates.

This difference may also come from excessive caution luxury groups in their financial reporting, who preferred to “make a good surprise” the market out of a particularly tough for the industry.

LVMH and PPR were among the highest increases of ACC in 2009 with gains of over 64% and 80% respectively, driven by expectations of a resumption of the luxury market.

Hermes, whose many valuations are almost two times the industry average, has instead ended the year 2009 on an increase limited to 3.7%. In the opinion of Bain & Co, the world market is expected to rebound in 2010 still shy (1% through Chinese search engine) before taking up more than in 2011 (+4.2%).

It was during an internship at a fashion house in New York during his studies that the designer of 24 years has discovered how “fashionable dog (was) popular in the U.S.,” leading country market.

In New York, which stands for three years a “Pet Fashion Week” very popular, “there are shops in every corner. And dogs are almost all dressed,” says she.

Dogs, “but also rabbits and hamsters, have the same right to their place for Halloween!” Says the young woman.

Convinced that this mode will end up coming, even belatedly, in France, with its market of eight million pets, she decides to make the heart of his project graduation at the Esmod (college of arts and techniques of fashion) in Lyon.

Everything comes together: the creation of its small business status through self-contractor, trademarking “BonChic GoodDog” validation of his degree and, icing on the cake, obtained in July of the first prize ex-aequo contest “Talents Fashion” presented by the fashion designer Chantal Thomass, which allows him to receive one year of free rent for his store.

“Talents Fashion” welcomes “the coherence of its business plan + + and its positioning in a niche, an emerging market and a future.”

The young designer is however for the time being forced to keep his job as a telemarketer at halftime, waiting to live her sewing.

That day, Edgar, a Chihuahua, is entering the lovely boutique studio located in the “Village of the creators, a group of shops” bobo “on the slopes of the Croix-Rousse in Lyon city center.

Celine Boulud takes measures for a winter coat while the master Edgar Merkan Rashid, a dog groomer, said his desire to “customize” the wardrobe of his dog, trying on a jacket decorated leatherette a collar coat at 150 euros and a tracksuit to 75 euros.

On the wall are exposed navy sweaters, overalls, dress in jeans and lace …

On its website (www.bonchicbonchien.com), Celine Boulud will soon propose an overview of his collection but also to buy online.

It provides be “the only one in France to do everything from A to Z, from design to sale. Each model is thus produced in limited edition on her sewing machine installed behind the counter of his shop.

While some shops selling Japanese or American brands exist, notably in Paris, the French luxury brands, usually advanced accessories, have slipped in this little niche.

Only Louis Vuitton and Hermes offer bags, leashes and collars for dogs from their wealthy clients.

“My difference with the competition is that I am the tailor-made,” says the designer who does not, however, dress up his jack-russell’s creations.

Cautious after a solid first half already, Hermes had forecast a stability of its annual sales and “a slight decline” in profit from it now figure about 5% decline in operating profit in 2009 , saying its sales target will be “slightly exceeded if the trend observed since the beginning of the year continues.

The group that made its reputation on its products, leather upholstery and silk scarves saw its quarterly revenue increase to 452.1 million euros over the three summer months, against 410.5 million of ‘euros a year earlier. The performance is still some 86 million euros to a positive currency impact.

Organic growth accelerated to 4.8% while activity has increased in the group’s stores (18% after 9% in first half). Among wholesalers, sales have declined further (-13%) but to a lesser extent than in the first half (-22%).

Demand for Kelly bags and other leather goods to over 4,000 euro has not weakened the division had recorded a growth of 15.7% at constant exchange rates in the first half, it now displays under the third quarter growth of 17.2% (and almost 28% on published data) in a context of falling global luxury market. Silk scarves and fashion accessories have contributed to buoyant sales but in terms of other trades, turnover is down with “a higher decrease on the clock and tableware” whose sales are suffering from de-stocking distributors.

In the fourth quarter, Hermes will continue its investment to develop its distribution network with the key to opening or renovation of six branches, including a new store in Seattle, United States, one in Calgary, Canada and several projects Asia.

With two annual sales Hermes Vintage, Artcurial Briest-Poulain-F.Tajan, became the first home of French auctions. In addition, she has organized over 12 years of sales Hermes Vintage. And for three years, the house is selling a historic piece belonging to a celebrity for charitable purposes.

After Jane Birkin in 2007 which sold its own “Birkin” for an amount of 74 000 (world record for a leather bag) in favor of The International Federation of Human Rights (FIDH) – or in 2008 The sale of 52 000 for a single piece bearing the effigy of Princess Grace offered by HSH (His Serene Highness) Princess Stephanie in aid of Fight Aids Monaco-is now the turn of Naomi Campbell to create the event to mark 25 years in the fashion world.

On 10 November, the famous supermodel will be present for the sale of alligator Birkin pale green. The funds raised will be dedicated to the fight against maternal and child health worldwide association of The White Ribbon Alliance.

Will also be selling 600 lots of other models Hermes Constance, Kelly, Bolide and Birkin.

Since 2007, the interest of enthusiasts and collectors for sales Hermes Vintage continues to grow.To demonstrate the result of the last sale date reached 725 000 with over 84% of lots sold.

After a decline in global sales of luxury that could reach about 10% in 2009, year of fracture compared to a historical average growth of 7% to 8% annually, the consulting firm Bain & Co. “The market will be stable at best or, at worst, down 5%,” he told Reuters Joëlle de Montgolfier, head of studies and distribution within the luxury consulting firm.
“The three areas most affected by the crisis (Europe, USA and Japan) account for 80% of global market and the prospects for recovery are not flamboyant,” she said.

For Isabelle Ardon, manager at Societe Generale Asset Management, “expectations are hard to do for 2010 given the unknown stocks. We may be a surprise if destocking is purged.

A return to a situation “normalized”, that is to say close to the average growth rates in the industry, should not intervene, she said before 2011-2012.

But with the prospect of a takeover, even shy, bases favorable comparison in the second half of 2009 and significant adaptation to the crisis (cost control, change in supply) sector values have greatly outperformed the index DJStoxx 50, advancing 15% since the beginning of the year.

PROPERTY SECTOR VALORISÉ :

“The industry is valued today and offers little potential in the short term,” he told Reuters analyst who requested anonymity, adding that the luxury groups “must demonstrate a capacity for rapid recovery in terms sales in order to consolidate their market growth.

Some, such as PPR owns Gucci (80% stock market since January), or Richemont, owner of houses Cartier or Van Cleef & Arpels, (44%), showing even double-digit growth compared to their levels before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.

Despite their rebounding, the luxury groups have returned to their historical levels. The sector is now valued on average at 17.5 times earnings in 2010 – excluding Hermes (more than 33 times), and Bulgari (more than 39 times), two values supported by takeover speculation – while the average History is around 20.

n the short term, the sector is exposed to the risk that poses the epidemic of influenza A on travel. If the impact is difficult to assess, analysts believe however that the effect of influenza H1N1 should not be sustainable.

“The impact is unpredictable, but its consequences are likely to be short and will not affect medium-term consumer behavior,” said one analyst who requested anonymity.

PREMIUM FASHION-LEATHER :

In the medium term, the actors of luxury should not all enjoy the same as the expected recovery of global growth.

Thus, watches and jewelry, which has particularly suffered from destocking because its products are mainly sold through third-party networks, is expected to recover more slowly than the leather goods or accessories. For the entry price of watches and jewelry are significantly higher than in the mode or leather.

Also, for groups such as Italian Bulgari, Swiss Richemont or American Tiffany, out of a crisis should it be slower, according to analysts, as Gucci, LVMH and Hermes, more diversified and less dependent on distributors.

Richemont, the world of luxury, which saw its sales plunge 21% over five months and whose stock has doubled in six months, does little upside potential in the short term. “The visibility on turnover is limited, even if the fundamental group are good in the long term,” said Rogerio Fujimori, an analyst at Credit Suisse.

Despite its stock rebound, analysts said that some titles still have a significant upside potential, especially LVMH. The world of luxury has underperformed its peer (value still shows a decrease of 1.8% compared to its levels before Lehman) due to the cons-performance of its wines and spirits division and because group is most at risk, through its subsidiary, DFS duty free, the risk of epidemic influenza.

But, according to analysts, its high exposure to the Chinese market (its flagship brand Louis Vuitton generates some 19% of its turnover) should make him a powerful lever. “The market underestimates the potential long-term Vuitton”, covered by analysts at Exane BNP Paribas in a note, saying that LV has taken the lead in terms of vertical integration, innovation and implementation Geographic.

RETURN OF SPECULATIONS :

Finally, the return of mergers and acquisitions could prompt speculation about possible alliances. “Predators are on the lookout, but targets are scarce and the potential sellers have not adjusted their prices, analysts said HSBC, who say they do not anticipate major building operations.

Among major groups, the home foreclosure capital of Hermes, Chanel and Bulgari, the most coveted, leaves little room for the appetite of buyers.

As for PPR, the prospects for recovery in consumption could reopen its doors to an assignment of a distribution center now largely restored. Among the small caps, only English Burberry seems to unite, according to HSBC, qualifications: 100% of floating capital and an important development potential for a brand very “British” with a strong identity.